ISIS Has Been Defeated In Syria, But War Getting Worse : A Quick Primer On Syria

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35806229
 

1.  Why is there a war in Syria?
15 March 2018
 

uprising 7 years ago turned into full-scale civil war

> 350,000 dead, devastated cities, drawn in other countries

 

2.  How did the Syrian war start?
 

complains about high unemployment, corruption, lack of freedom 

(Just like Malaysia)
 

March 2011 demonstrations in southern city of Deraa

govt used deadly force to crush dissent

protests erupted nationwide

Opposition took up arms

Assad vowed to crush "foreign-backed terrorism"
violence escalated, descended into civil war

 

3. How many people have died?
 

deaths 353,900 people by March 2018

not include 56,900 missing, presumed dead

100,000 deaths not documented

 

4. What is the war about?
 

now more than battle for or against Assad
Many groups, countries - each with own agenda - involved

fostering hatred between Sunni majority against Shia
atrocities, torn communities apart, dimmed hopes of peace
allowed Islamic State (IS), al-Qaeda to flourish
Kurds want self-government, another dimension to conflict

 

5.  Who's involved?
 

govt's key supporters- Russia, Iran

US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia back rebels
Russia crucial in turning tide of war in govt's favour
Russia targets "terrorists", kill mainstream rebels, civilians
 

Iran deployed hundreds of troops, spent billions to help Assad
Thousands of Shia militiamen armed, financed by Iran

mostly from Lebanon's Hezbollah 

also Iraq, Afghan, Yemenis - fought alongside Syrian army

US, UK, France, West provided support for rebels
Kurdish-Arab Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) capture territory from jihadists
Turkey supports rebels to contain Kurds (SDF)

Saudi armed rebels to contain Iran
Israel concerned by Hezbollah in Syria 

 

6.  How has the country been affected?
 

'00,000 deaths, 1.5m permanent disabilities, 86,000 lost limbs
6.1m internally displaced, 5.6m fled abroad
UN estimates 13.1m require humanitarian in 2018

 

7.  How is the country divided?
 

govt regained control of biggest cities

large parts held by rebels, Kurd alliance
largest opposition stronghold Idlib  >2.6m people

assault in Eastern Ghouta

393,000 under siege by govt since 2013

facing intense bombardment 

SDF controls territory east of Euphrates, including Raqqa

Until 2017 capital of ISIS "caliphate" 

 

8.  Will the war ever end?
 

does not look like it will any time soon 

UN called for implementation of 2012 Geneva Communique

9 rounds of UN peace talks - Geneva II process, since 2014 little progress

Assad increasingly unwilling to negotiate with opposition

rebels insist he must step down as part of any settlement

West accused Russia of undermining peace by setting up parallel process
Astana process, Russia hosted "Congress of National Dialogue" Jan 2018

pro West groups refused to attend

My comments :  The ISIS has been defeated in Syria. Yet things have gotten a little bit more tricky in that country.  Fact is things have gotten worse throughout the Middle East.  

The 40 million Kurds in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran want their homeland. 

"estimated Kurdish population is 35 million. rough estimate by CIA Factbook has Kurdish populations of 14.5 million in Turkey, 6 million in Iran, about 5 to 6 million in Iraq, and less than 2 million in Syria, which adds up to close to 28 million Kurds in Kurdistan and adjacent regions"

That is a lot of people. In Iraq the Kurdish have been semi-autonomous for over two decades.  The Syrian Kurds also have become self sustaining. Plus they have the US and Israel on their side.

This makes Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Assad worried.  This is a big part of the equation.  There is no single transnational Kurdish group or leadership.  The Kurdistan Workers Party or PKK is very much Turkish in its outlook.

The Kurdish Barzanjis of Iraq seem happy to remain in Iraq.  The powerful YPG in Syria is also focussed on Kurdish autonomy in Syria.

If 45 million Kurds get together on a united platform, they will create a new equation in the Middle East. The sooner this happens, the greater the chance for a lasting peace.

The Shia - Sunni conflict is much easier to handle. Just get rid of the Sauds in Arabia and get rid of the Ayatollahs in Iran.  The entire Islamic world will settle down. 

This should be the focus of the whole world now.  

The satan's horns are so clearly visible. 

We have to cut them off. 

Do not sit with them. 

Or sit on them.