The fall of Isa Samad, from warlord to detainee

From a powerful warlord to a man hiding his hands underneath an orange lockup jumper, Jempol MP Isa Abdul Samad's fall was not something many had expected.

Isa was once a big man in BN, having served as Negeri Sembilan menteri besar for over two decades, and had aimed for top positions in Umno, starting with a vice presidency.

He is seen to be a close associate of Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, who had put him in charge of Felda and later its subsidiary Felda Global Ventures (FGV), key institutions for BN's Malay rural support base.

When he quit FGV amid a spat with the CEO in June, the prime minister immediately made him the acting Land Public Transport Commission (Spad) chief.

One may see this as a sign that Isa, with Najib's patronage, is enjoying certain forms of political security.

But this was not the case when the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) arrested him on Tuesday, raided his home, and dragged him to court the next day.

Such a move against a warlord is typically risky, as this could instigate a rebellion among his supporters.

However, it seems that Isa is no longer as powerful as he once was, limiting any possible risk of political backlash from his supporters.

"Backlash? Probably low-level and limited to proxies and cronies," Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia professor Shamsul Amri Baharuddin told Malaysiakini.

While much more reserved in his comments, National Council of Professors (MPN) political, security, and international affairs cluster head Mohamed Mustafa Ishak shared similar views.

Mustafa said Isa only has considerable influence in Jempol where he is the MP, and in Teluk Kemang where he is the Umno division chief.

Political analyst Ahmad Atory Hussain went as far as saying that without Najib's patronage, Isa's political career would have ended by now.

"He was uplifted and helped by Najib, that is why (he was in high places), but without Najib's aid, Isa's career would have bungkus (ended)," Atory said.

Beginning of end

Isa's plummet from power began when Umno suspended his membership in 2005 over money politics in the party's elections the previous year, ending his short-lived term as Umno vice president.

He was not nominated in the 2008 general election, and was only brought back from the political wilderness in 2009 when the Najib administration fielded him as a candidate for the Bagan Pinang by-election.

Isa won that by-election, and a year later Najib appointed him as Felda chairperson. He went on to win the Jempol seat with a 8,614 vote majority in 2013.

"Najib saw that he could perform, so that is why he was uplifted," Atory said.

But despite his comeback at a federal level, Isa does not appear to have regained the influence he once had in Negeri Sembilan.

Instead, the state BN is firmly behind menteri besar Mohamad Hasan, whom analysts say has done a remarkable job.

"The current menteri besar has surpassed Isa in performance. The focus now is on the current menteri besar," Shamsul Amri said.

Atory added that in Umno, the practice was to rally behind top leaders, and in Negeri Sembilan, that leader was Mohamad.

Mohamad himself does not appear to be too concerned about possible ramifications stemming from Isa's arrest.

Felda fall guy?

In a Berita Harian report on Wednesday, he was quoted as saying that the arrest was not proof that Isa was guilty, and neither would it hamper Teluk Kemang Umno and BN's preparations for the next general election.

Far from being a blow to BN in the next polls, Isa's arrest could instead be viewed as a bonus that could complement Najib's goodies for Felda settlers.

What better way to counter the opposition blaming Isa for Felda's economic woes, than by probing him for suspected corruption to show that the government is committed to curing Felda of its ills?

"Najib feels threatened by Harapan's plans to capture Felda, so he needs to do something.

"Isa is Najib's friend, yes, but in politics there are no permanent allies or enemies," Atory said.

Shamsul Amri however said it is possible that Isa's arrest had nothing to do with Najib at all.

He said to his knowledge, the MACC under its new chief Dzulkifli Ahmad was serious about going "fast and furious" against graft.

"Felda is a side issue, but a good reason to finally get Isa (for alleged graft) whether Najib favours him or not," he said.

The MACC yesterday received a five-day remand for Isa to facilitate its probe on Felda Investment Corporation's allegedly overpriced purchase of two hotels.

They have raided two of his homes since his arrest. -Mkini