MIDEAST MONITOR: WHAT’S NEXT FOR SISI’S EGYPT?
FEBRUARY 18, 2017 01:28
FEBRUARY 18, 2017 01:28
real, multiple difficulties confronting Egypt
Sisi's claim to legitimacy : patriotism, promises betterment, stability
harsh repression of political opposition
severe checks on independent civil society
restrictions on judicial independence.
times especially tough for ordinary Egyptians
Revenue from tourism declined 50% during 2015-16
Sisi's claim to legitimacy : patriotism, promises betterment, stability
harsh repression of political opposition
severe checks on independent civil society
restrictions on judicial independence.
times especially tough for ordinary Egyptians
Revenue from tourism declined 50% during 2015-16
population increased 17.3 million to 94 million over decade
burdens on social services, educational and labor market
Official unemployment 14%; youth unemployment 40%.
Sisi negotiated 3-year loan package of US$12 billion
Sisi negotiated 3-year loan package of US$12 billion
contingent on (GST), lowering subsidies, currency adjustment, trim public sector
14% devaluation of Egyptian pound in March sparked inflation
acute shortages in essentials, sugar, poultry, rice, medications.
acute shortages in essentials, sugar, poultry, rice, medications.
Pharmacists incurred wrath of public
the deal with IMF - law cutting public sector employees enacted
Egyptian pound immediately halved
energy subsidies slashed, fuel price increase 30-45%.
For importers new exchange rate catastrophic
pound’s 100%+ devaluation spiked inflation
24% in Dec, some prices rose 80%.
unwise to ignore difficulties confronting Egyptian society
My comment : What is happening is that Egyptian society is facing a situation where their car has run out of fuel, they have got out of their cars, they are standing by the roadside and they do not know what to do.
This will soon happen in Malaysia. It has to happen in Malaysia.
The main difference is that in Egypt it affects everyone equally, especially the poor.
In Malaysia it will affect the Malays and some other Muslims more than the non Muslims.
Look at the highlights in yellow. Isnt this what has happened here already?
Now look at the highlights in red above. Former KSU of the Finance Ministry Tan Sri Sheriff Kassim recently wrote an open letter to the prime minister saying that the govt should trim the civil service now before they run out of money to pay salaries for our 1.6 million civil servants.
That is what the IMF has imposed upon Egypt. Meaning yes their Civil Service is bloated and they must cut it down.
Isnt the Malaysian Civil Service also bloated?
Ok here is the soalan cepu mas. How many per cent of the Malaysian Civil Service is non Malay (Chinese, Indian etc)? 5%?
Meaning the majority of Civil Servants are Malays. If the gomen is forced to cut the Civil Service (and they will have to, they have little choice) then what will those mostly Malay Civil Servants do?
Can they all become Uber drivers? Can they all sell nasi lemak? Not likely.
The vast majority of Chinese are already independent of subsidies and independent of the gomen. They will continue surviving - although they too will suffer a slowdown.
The CIA World Fact Book says about Malaysia :
Population: 30,949,962 (July 2016 est.)
Ethnic groups: Malay 50.1%, Chinese 22.6%, indigenous 11.8%, Indian 6.7%, other 0.7%, non-citizens 8.2% (2010 est.)
Going by these numbers, about half the population will run out of fuel. They will not know what else to do.
The other half will know what to do. They may not run out of fuel yet.
This is not good. But there are extremely easy solutions.
Much better than simply firing the Civil Servants.
the deal with IMF - law cutting public sector employees enacted
Egyptian pound immediately halved
energy subsidies slashed, fuel price increase 30-45%.
For importers new exchange rate catastrophic
pound’s 100%+ devaluation spiked inflation
24% in Dec, some prices rose 80%.
unwise to ignore difficulties confronting Egyptian society
My comment : What is happening is that Egyptian society is facing a situation where their car has run out of fuel, they have got out of their cars, they are standing by the roadside and they do not know what to do.
This will soon happen in Malaysia. It has to happen in Malaysia.
The main difference is that in Egypt it affects everyone equally, especially the poor.
In Malaysia it will affect the Malays and some other Muslims more than the non Muslims.
Look at the highlights in yellow. Isnt this what has happened here already?
Now look at the highlights in red above. Former KSU of the Finance Ministry Tan Sri Sheriff Kassim recently wrote an open letter to the prime minister saying that the govt should trim the civil service now before they run out of money to pay salaries for our 1.6 million civil servants.
That is what the IMF has imposed upon Egypt. Meaning yes their Civil Service is bloated and they must cut it down.
Isnt the Malaysian Civil Service also bloated?
Ok here is the soalan cepu mas. How many per cent of the Malaysian Civil Service is non Malay (Chinese, Indian etc)? 5%?
Meaning the majority of Civil Servants are Malays. If the gomen is forced to cut the Civil Service (and they will have to, they have little choice) then what will those mostly Malay Civil Servants do?
Can they all become Uber drivers? Can they all sell nasi lemak? Not likely.
The vast majority of Chinese are already independent of subsidies and independent of the gomen. They will continue surviving - although they too will suffer a slowdown.
The CIA World Fact Book says about Malaysia :
Population: 30,949,962 (July 2016 est.)
Ethnic groups: Malay 50.1%, Chinese 22.6%, indigenous 11.8%, Indian 6.7%, other 0.7%, non-citizens 8.2% (2010 est.)
Going by these numbers, about half the population will run out of fuel. They will not know what else to do.
The other half will know what to do. They may not run out of fuel yet.
This is not good. But there are extremely easy solutions.
Much better than simply firing the Civil Servants.
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