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Thursday, December 14, 2017

Now, Penang DAP rep barred from approving flood aid

Bukit Bendera MP Zairil Khir Johari takes over responsibility from Tanjung Bungah assemblyman Teh Yee Cheu .
Zairil-Khir-Johari_4
Bukit Bendera MP Zairil Khir Johari will be in charge of approving RM700 flood aid to applicants from Tanjung Bungah after the state government bars assemblyman Teh Yee Cheu from doing so.
GEORGE TOWN: The Penang government has confirmed that DAP’s Tanjung Bungah assemblyman Teh Yee Cheu is barred from approving a RM700 aid for those in his constituency who were affected by last month’s unprecedented flash floods.
The responsibility now falls to Bukit Bendera MP Zairil Khir Johari, whose parliamentary constituency includes the state constituency of Tanjung Bungah.
Teh is the second assemblyman in Penang to be barred from approving the RM700 flood aid.
PKR’s Kebun Bunga assemblyman Cheah Kah Peng was similarly “relieved” from approving flood aid last month, with the responsibility handed over to neighbouring Pulau Tikus assemblyman Yap Soo Huey.
Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng had said that Cheah was barred as recommended by the state secretary who suggested some “internal procedural changes”.
Zairil said the action was taken against Teh following the latter’s announcement that he would leave the DAP in the next election and his apparent drop in performance as an assemblyman.
“YB Teh has publicly announced that he would leave the DAP and go against the Pakatan Harapan state government. In fact, there was a press report quoting him as saying he would contest against PH.
“So this is one hostile statement that is attributed to him. But at the same time, there has been the question of responsiveness.
“Taking all of the factors into account, the Penang government has decided to shift the final approving authority to me, instead of Teh. We are doing this so the flood victims get their aid on time,” Zairil told reporters today.
Zairil said by “responsiveness”, he meant that Teh was often out of reach and had skipped many constituency-related meetings and events.
“For the past year, he has slowed down and has become very low profile. He has been sort of not very active. A lot of people have tried contacting him and have complained to me, including the JKKK (village security and development committee) chairman.
“In the recent tragedies, such as the landslide in Tanjung Bungah and the recent floods, he has not been on the ground, not as before.
“I think before YB Teh has been quick and always on the ground. He has been less active.
“Our priority is to have all flood victims receive their aid. We could not take any risk. Most of them have chosen to have the money banked in directly to their accounts.
“I would like to stress that this does not affect Teh’s function as a state assemblyman,” Zairil said.
He said those whose applications had been approved for the flood aid could head to Komtar this Saturday to receive their RM700 assistance.
On claims by Teh that he was not informed about the state government’s decision, Zairil said an email from Penang State Secretary Farizan Darus was sent to him on Nov 20.
FMT has contacted Teh for comment and is awaiting his reply. -FMT

UMNO DETERMINED TO POKE FIRE BETWEEN THE SULTANS & DR MAHATHIR: DECISION TO RETURN AWARDS IS AN INSULT, CLAIMS NUR JAZLAN

KUALA LUMPUR – Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s decision to return the two awards he received from the Selangor Palace can be seen as a further insult, said Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed.
“It was given to him, it’s not like he asked for it. If he returned them, it can be seen as an insult (to the honour) and to those awards,” said the Deputy Home Minister.
Nur Jazlan was speaking a press conference for the Drug Prevention Association (Pemadam)’s upcoming annual general meeting at its headquarters here Thursday.
When reporters suggested that he had returned the awards because he had incurred the Palace’s anger, Nur Jazlan said: “Itu bukan adat orang Melayu (that’s not Malay culture)”.
 “Patience. It’s not that long more. He will be released according to the sentencing that was imposed on him.
“He does not suffer from any life-threatening issues. You don’t have to worry about his safety, we’ve looked after him for about five years now,” he said.
– ANN

BOMBSHELL – MALAY TIDE TURNS: EVEN PERKASA YOUTH CHIEFS JOINS PKR – ‘THE ISSUE NOW IS UMNO DOESN’T HAVE A LEADER OF PRESTIGE’

Former Perkasa Youth chief Irwan Fahmi Ideris has joined PKR, with the hope of toppling Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak through the opposition.
Irwan, together with 35 Perkasa Youth executive council members and ordinary members, submitted their application forms to PKR Youth deputy chief Dr Afif Bahardin at the party’s headquarters in Petaling Jaya this morning.
Later, Afif put PKR’s badge on Irwan’s collar to welcome into PKR.
However, he still maintains his membership in Perkasa despite cutting ties with Umno. Irwan was previously an Ipoh Barat Umno division member.
He was Perkasa youth chief since 2010, before leaving the post in 2016.
Irwan claimed he has been pushing for Najib’s resignation since August 2013, but the increasing precariousness of Malaysia’s economy and Malay rights recently prompted him to join the federal opposition.
“Now who has betrayed the Malays? Even Malay reserve land was sold off. Is this DAP’s fault? Who rules the country? Who has betrayed whom?” he asked.
Asked why has was not staying on with Perkasa instead to topple Najib, Irwan (photo) said the best platform to do so with an opposition political party.
“Perkasa is only a NGO, if we want to fight against Najib, we must stand together with a political party… But I am still a Perkasa member, just not holding any position,” he said.
Afif: PKR also fights for the Malays

Asked why he did not decide to join Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), a more Malay-centric party rather than PKR, Afif helped Irwan to answer by saying that PKR also fights for the Malays.
Afif, who is a Penang state executive councillor, said PKR and Pakatan Harapan respect the Federal Constitution and the Malay bumiputera position.
“There is no liberal or right-wing Malay. The issue now is that Umno doesn’t have a leader of prestige. Now, who is so proud to say Najib is our prime minister?
“Except for Umno members, who others dare to wear the Najib cloth?” Afif added.
He then went on to praise Irwan’s participation in PKR, hoping that Irwan would help the party to spread the Refomasi message among the Perkasa members.
“PKR is an inclusive party. As long as one appreciates the Reformasi agenda, he can join the party. Perkasa currently has 700,000 members and Irwan can give PKR a chance to explain Refomasi to the other Perkasa members.
“Whether you are a Perkasa member or not, we need the support of the whole nation,” Afif added.
The other Perkasa leaders who joined PKR today were former Perkasa Youth vice-chief Syamzari Putera Mohd Noh, former Youth exco members Muhammad Hafiz Zulkifly and Zulkarnain Haron and incumbent Youth assistant secretary Muhammad Zaihuruddin Zulkamar.
– M’kini

AT 92, DR M CAN ONLY BE INTERIM PM – YET ‘RM90MIL’ HADI IS EVEN MORE SCARED THAN ‘MO1’ NAJIB: EX PM ‘S IRON FIST WILL BE TERRIBLE IF HE RETURNS TO POWER, WARNS PAS

PAS research centre director Mohd Zuhdi Marzuki has painted a bleak future for Malaysia if Dr Mahathir Mohamad becomes prime minister again.
He argued that rational people would find it difficult to accept the 92-year-old politician at the helm again.
According to Zuhdi, Malaysians are still burdened by the damage inflicted by Mahathir through his policies and administrative practices during the two decades he was prime minister.
“During Mahathir’s rule, he had centralised power by making the powers of the prime minister so wide until there was interference in the legislative and judiciary.
“When he was prime minister, he succeeded in curtailing the powers of the Malay rulers through two amendments to the Federal Constitution in 1983 and 1993,” he added in a statement.
Zuhdi also pointed out that Mahathir had violated agreements with state governments such as in the royalty for petroleum.
“If Mahathir becomes prime minister again, it is certain he will be more of an iron fist ruler than before,” he warned.
The PAS central committee member also claimed that Mahathir’s economic policies and practices had incurred losses for the country and the people.
“Because of these policies and practices, the people are still shouldering the burden such as the increase in living cost, rising household debt and the widening gap between the rich and poor,” he added.
Zuhdi cited Mahathir’s privatisation policy as an example and noted the increase in toll rates, water and electricity tariffs, higher education loans and others.
The PAS researcher also claimed there were negative social implications as well such as reducing the role of Bahasa Malaysia as the national language.
“He introduced the teaching of science and mathematics in English, which directly eroded the role of the national language in education.
“During Mahathir’s era, there was also the liberalisation of higher education to the point of the national language being sidelined in the higher education level,” he added.
Apart from this, Zuhdi also claimed there was no significant success in fostering racial ties, eradicating drug abuse and reducing the crime rate during Mahathir’s rule.
He also warned that nominating Mahathir as Pakatan Harapan’s prime minister candidate would sound the death knell for the reformasi movement kickstarted by Anwar Ibrahim two decades ago.
“Without the intention of interfering in Harapan’s internal affairs, PAS research centre is of the view that they should put forth a candidate who can continue the reformasi agenda,” he added.
In an immediate response, Johor DAP publicity secretary Sheikh Omar Ali told Zuhdi not to poke his nose into Harapan’s affairs and “pretend to be good” by defending Anwar’s reformasi ideals.
He pointed out that during the 13th general election, PAS nominated Umno veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah for the prime minister post instead of Anwar.
“In the absence of a stern voice from PAS to criticise Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, Zuhdi’s criticism is seen as just another move which reveals PAS’ role in strengthening Najib and BN’s position,” he said in a statement.
Yesterday, Mahathir downplayed the possibility of becoming prime minister again, saying that Harapan has not made a final decision on this.
The Harapan chairperson said he might be nominated if the “people are desperate” and in the absence of other choices.
Following the coalition’s recent pre-general election retreat, news reports surfaced that Harapan nominated Mahathir for the prime minister’s post and PKR president Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail for deputy prime minister.
– M’kini

NAJIB NOW A SPENT FORCE: HIS OWN UNPOPULARITY, PERSISTENT ANTI-CHINESE STANCE & RISING DISCONTENT AMONG THE MALAYS WILL BURY UMNO-BN

If Najib Abdul Razak remains the only prime ministerial candidate for Barisan Nasional in this coming general election, it would not be unthinkable to see the end of the BN era.
Of course, some people might think that I make such a stand because I am from the opposition, a fact that I do not deny as I want to see BN and Umno losing this election.
However, more importantly, I am merely describing the non-partisan political dynamics that I have been observing for quite some time.
Umno has three fundamental weaknesses. Unless very dramatic events happen to change the course of events in the next few months, Umno will walk into this election handicapped by these factors: Najib himself, no love from the non-Malays, and massive discontent over the economy.
The Najib factor
In the 2013 general election, Najib was an asset to Umno-BN. His personal brand was consistently polling higher than that of Umno-BN, especially among Malay voters. Najib’s approval rating was above 60 percent for most of the time until 2015, a watershed year.
As the 1MDB scandals and the donation-gate were exposed, the prime minister’s national approval rating nosedived to the thirties (in percentage) and never returned to its former glory.
A senior journalist wrote before the recent Umno general assembly that “internal party polls show that his (Najib) popularity ratings have steadily climbed to the high 30s. Najib is now the king of the hill, given that there is no other alternative centre of power in the party.”
It is amusing that the author and her source think that a rating in the high 30s for Najib is a cause to celebrate.
Some have argued that the 1MDB scandal would have no impact on the election. I beg to differ. Yes, 1MDB alone probably won’t swing votes, but the fact that the voters will walk into the polling booth knowing that the prime minister had taken money into his own personal bank account is an important electoral factor.
Otherwise, Najib’s rating would have gone back to the 60 percent level of pre-2015, and not hovering in the 30s, a recipe for disaster for Umno-BN.
Whether they like it or not, both Najib and his wife Rosmah Mansor (photo) are hated figures among the electorate. On the social media and political gossip circles, they are constantly ridiculed by parodies, not by the opposition but by the spontaneous public.
Unless Umno removes Najib and puts up a new set of leaders, he is a liability for the party and the ruling coalition. It even reaches the stage when anyone who is with Najib is tainted by association.
The non-Malay factor
After Umno’s right turn in 2005, signified by Hishammuddin Hussein’s keris waving antics, non-Malay voters no longer voted for Umno.
A journalist who worked for a foreign media told me a story recently. He probed a senior MCA leader on the news source of MCA’s claim that BN had 35 percent of Chinese votes. After being coy for some time, the leader finally admitted that “Liew Chin Tong said so!”
The source for this absurd claim came from my interview with The Edge in June this year that the opposition had a solid backing of 65 percent of non-Malay support, as shown in the Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar by-elections.
In both elections, a new party, Amanah, was fielded in semi-urban areas. Yet it managed to receive 65 percent of the non-Malay support. (Non-Malay support for the opposition is higher in urban settings, while the majority of semi-urban non-Malay voters voted for BN until the big swing in the 2013 election.)
Between the 65 percent support in the by-elections and the 85 percent non-Malay support across the board in the 2013 general election, there is, of course, a gap. It doesn’t mean BN naturally has the remaining 35 percent non-Malay support. But we know that when someone is desperate, he or she will justify anything under the sun.
Hence, there is a campaign to ask Chinese voters to spoil their votes in the next election – because BN leaders know that it is impossible to convince Chinese voters to vote for them.
I concede that the swing voters among the non-Malays have yet to be convinced that BN can be defeated and that a change would be for the better. This is something Pakatan Harapan has to work on.
The discontent factor
Average Malaysians are struggling to survive because the economy is bad for them. Worse still, the Najib government refuses to acknowledge that there is a problem.
Superstar celebrity Sheila Majid’s (photo) tweet essentially exposed Umno as the emperor with no clothes. Malaysia’s Jazz Queen’s tweet about the struggles of ordinary Malaysians came just before the recent Umno general assembly.
During that pompous and boisterous assembly, Najib did not talk about the hardship of ordinary Malaysians. Instead, he highlighted selected statistics to show that the Malaysian economy is doing very well. For him, Malaysia is supposedly one of the best performing economies in the world.
He even claimed that Umno will continue to rule for a thousand years.
Sheila Majid’s tweet was on point, describing the financial difficulties of ordinary Malaysians. She said nothing after the tweet but minister after minister responded. One said artistes should not comment on politics while another justified that the rising cost of living is God’s will. Another one even demanded the popular singer to provide evidence on the state of our economy.
These ministers’ responses, seen by many as merely attempts to butter up Najib, do not rest well with average Malay voters, and it is expected to fuel stronger anti-establishment sentiments among the electorate.
Perhaps Umno leaders never realised that many ordinary Malays are sharing their stories of financial difficulties with local celebrities through the artistes’ social media.
In short, with Najib being highly unpopular since 2015 and increasingly being hated, with a non-Malay electorate having no love for BN since 2005, and with a highly discontented Malay electorate ready to rise against the political elites, the end is nigh for Umno-BN.
WRITER: LIEW CHIN TONG is the MP for Kluang, DAP Johor chairperson and the party’s national political education director.

THE ‘FUNERAL’ FOR HADI & CO WILL BEGIN IN KELANTAN: SICK & TIRED OF THEIR SELF-INFLICTED BACKWARDNESS, KELANTANESE LOOK TO AMANAH & BERSATU TO BECOME ‘NORMAL MALAYS’ ONCE AGAIN

WHEN Prime Minister Najib Razak, also the president of Umno, the dominant coalition partner in Barisan Nasional, made a friendly deal with the leaders of PAS, they must have thought that when it comes to the 14th general election, winning Malay-majority states, such as Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah and Perlis, would be a plain-sailing exercise.
With a weakening Umno, as reflected in the GE13 results and subsequent long-standing issues surrounding 1Malaysia Development Berhad, which have not gone away and are far from being resolved, a very weak PM working closely with a formidable opposition party such as PAS seems to be a good idea that could lead to a winning strategy.
At least, PAS leaders are now seemingly less critical of BN and the government of the day, although the situation at the grassroots level seems confused at best and wrathful at worst.
This confusion and wrathful attitude towards their leaders is a dangerous trend, as far as the general election is concerned. It hits both sides, Umno and PAS, especially the grassroots members.
Long-standing feuds and local political rivalry cut quite deep in the Malay heartland, where the bitterness towards each other is symbolised through the colours of blue and green, respectively.
Green (PAS) being more Islamic, and blue (BN) used to be more open and liberal. But in reality and in practical terms, they do not mix well.
They pray at different mosques, do not attend each other’s important functions, such as weddings and funerals. Many social events at the local level are held according to these political colours. In other words, entire lifestyles and daily practices in Kelantan (and Terengganu) characterise political support for and an inclination towards who they voted for.
PAS first won Kelantan in the 1959 general election, when it got 28 out of 30 contested state seats, and ruled the state until 1977. After the 1969 polls, PAS joined forces with Umno/BN, and by the 1974 polls, when BN, including PAS, ruled the state, there was no opposition at all in the state legislative assembly.
This BN membership, however, did not last long, and in typical PAS political fashion, a crisis broke out and it was kicked out from BN in 1977. As a result, it was badly punished by voters in the 1978 general election.
PAS was left with only two state seats, with a breakaway faction, Berjasa, taking 11 seats and BN the rest. Umno/BN, together with Berjasa, governed the state until 1990, when a much bigger and more serious crisis, this time in Umno, surfaced and took its toll.
Under the new leadership of the late Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, PAS somehow managed to convince voters and took advantage of Umno’s internal squabble, and crawled back into power in the 1990 polls, together with Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah (TR), who, by then, had left Umno.
After he failed to unseat Dr Mahathir Mohamad in Umno’s presidential election, he left and formed a breakaway party, Semangat 46. TR collaborated with PAS and cleanly wrested Kelantan from Umno/BN, leaving Umno/BN with not even a single seat in the state assembly in the 1990 polls.
That is Kelantan voters for the taking; outright rejection of Umno/BN, pretty decisive with no emotional attachment despite Umno’s 13-year rule in the state prior to that.
To be fair to the state and its voters, BN did not do much over that 13-year period, anyway. The so-called “development agenda”, often found in BN’s campaign manifesto and propaganda, never took place, and Kelantan remained physically isolated and poor in terms of infrastructure and economic development.
Kelantan’s gross domestic product remained stagnant for many years and the average monthly income of its population did not increase as expected. There was no economic development to speak of.
It is worth noting that despite the Malaysian government’s affirmative action plans via the New Economic Policy at that time, which was meant to uplift the economic status of Bumiputeras, not many Kelantanese became millionaires as a result.
In fact, many Kelantanese, who are mainly in the Bumiputera category, continued to struggle in terms of employment.
There was hardly any job creation in Kelantan, no manufacturing, no factories, no new investments.
Statistics show that as many as half of the population had to migrate to other states to look for jobs or set up businesses. Kelantan remains under-developed.
So, it was not surprising at all when Kelantan voters totally switched sides and punished Umno/BN, leaving the coalition with no seats at all in 1990. From that year onwards, Umno/BN continued to lose in the next five polls, in 1995, 1999, 2004, 2008 and 2013.
Loss of Malay culture
But the sad part for Kelantan was that PAS could not govern the state, either. The strong mandate given to the party to rule Kelantan was interpreted, for many years thereafter, as an endorsement of PAS’ Islamic agenda, an unclarified party policy that took precedence in the state administration.
In the process, PAS not only did away with all forms of open and liberal policies, but also deleted Malay culture and traditions from everyday life.
Slowly but surely, PAS dismantled the Malay cultural heritage and banned all forms of Malay cultural shows by classifying them as un-Islamic.
Malay traditional dress was abandoned and replaced by long, flowing Arab robes for men, and a tablecloth with a hole called a “tudung” for women. Any form of entertainment, and alcohol-serving places, such as clubs, music halls and karaoke spots, were not allowed, and even cinemas were banned in Kelantan.
The main excuse was that entertainment can be found across the border in southern Thailand.
The PAS administration, for the most part, was not only seen as totally rejecting life on Earth, preferring the afterlife, but was also quite hostile towards non-compliance. The state assembly was used as a rubber-stamping board to pass one Islamic bill after another to punish Muslims who did not comply with the state’s version or PAS’ way of life.
Even women’s use of lipsticks became a state issue and was banned. Under PAS rule, life in Kelantan became one big fake life, and created more hypocrites than ever.
One could blame many influencing factors for this dormant and doomed period of PAS rule. No effective opposition, a poor education system, an “overdose” of religious schools, autocratic decision-making processes, no development plans, the erosion of Malay cultural values and hypocritical Kelantan Umno leaders were some of the key elements that dragged Kelantan into its religious abyss.
As opposition members in Kelantan, Umno leaders were worthless and could not play their pretended secular roles effectively to counter the extreme religious agenda.
It took many years for voters and some current leaders to realise that this is not the way to move forward, and definitely not exactly what they voted a government for.
This long and overdue realisation came in the form of two breakaway parties: Amanah, which emanated from PAS, and Bersatu, an offshoot of Umno, the leaders of whom were tired of the RM2.6 billion donation scandal and corrupt practices in Umno.
Amanah and Bersatu
Amanah obviously drew its main support from ex-PAS members, with many notable leaders, such as Husam Musa, Wan Abdul Rahim Wan Abdullah and Mohd Hatta Ramli, to name but a few of the able Kelantan big guns who will certainly sway voters to this new party.
Eleven of 21 current MPs who won in the 2013 polls on PAS tickets have opted to join Amanah. As the name suggests, Amanah is built on the concept of Islamic integrity, honesty and accountability, which seem to be missing from the leftover leadership in PAS.
And while Bersatu has Dr Mahathir at the top, it has managed to attract other ex-Umno members too, as well as new members in Kelantan, the so-called “fence sitters”.
One notable leader of Kelantan Bersatu is none other than Abdul Rashid Abdul Rahman, who was the secretary, deputy chairman and chairman of the Election Commission for many years. He is highly respected and a key figure in bringing in more votes for Pakatan Harapan.
Several leaders of these two new parties, when they met recently, attributed the new mindset of Kelantan voters to the fact that the Kelantanese are now better informed.
Many of them are now living outside Kelantan as a result of economic migration, in places where information is more readily available, and they can see issues in a better light, but continue to maintain strong links with the state through holiday visits, ties with relatives, ownership of properties in Kelantan, business interests in the state and so on.
This has made them more eager to see meaningful changes in the state, but not through the present “sitting duck” government or suspiciously corrupt Umno.
From many reliable sources, the Kelantanese are now ready to make that change once again. So confident are Amanah and Bersatu, grouped under PH, campaigners now that they no longer highlight the misfortune of 1MDB or corrupt Umno and PAS leaders, things that have been well publicised, regularly espoused and understood by many among the crowd that they draw each time a talk is held in the state.
The focus has now shifted to having a development plan for Kelantan, a realistic and solid plan that will deal with real issues of the day, such as flooded rivers, poor kampung facilities and the absence of proper drainage systems for the floodplain of Kota Baru.
The long-standing issue of not having hydro dams to control floodwaters and, at the same time, to generate much-needed electricity and provide clean water to all Kelantanese homes, is a top priority. The expenditure will be derived from oil and gas royalties that Kelantan was promised and supposed to receive, but did not get for many years.
The new PH government will pursue this agenda.
Another important element in its manifesto is to have an infrastructure master plan that will truly transform Kelantan to be on a par with other states in Malaysia, such as Selangor and Johor, and areas in the Klang Valley.
Within this transport master plan, there is talk about cancelling the East Coast Rail Link, which is expensive and not really beneficial, and replacing it with a more straight and direct route via a Kuala Lumpur-Kota Baru high-speed rail link that may eventually be connected to southern Thailand, a vast market that has also been neglected for far too long.
An absence of highways to connect Kelantan with neighbouring states, such as Terengganu, Perak and Pahang, and even southern Thailand, is also being included in this agenda.
There is talk about transforming education and its facilities, so that the Kelantanese can receive better education and to make them more technically qualified. There are strong craftsmanship skills in many Kelantanese who support the local craft industry, relating to wood-based and traditional architecture.
This will become part of the long-term educational and technical plans that will be enhanced further through specific facilities and programmes.
Also, a focus on bringing back Malay culture and traditions, so that Kelantan can truly live up to its long-standing reputation as the Malay cultural heartland, rich in Malay heritage and traditional values.
In other words, the campaign by PH is not only to make Kelantan a fully developed state in terms of its physical setting, but also equally rich in the Malay culture and lifestyle, in which the values of integrity, honesty and accountability become part and parcel of the transformation.
Without spelling it out directly, the elimination of corrupt practices is definitely high up in its Malay agenda.
A small swing
All in all, a small swing of 10% is all that is needed in order to form a new government in Kelantan. A 5% swing (or roughly about 750 votes) in the overall voting pattern in Kelantan will see PAS and Umno/BN losing 12 seats, that will go to PH.
Five of these seats are currently held by Umno/BN, while the other seven are held by PAS.
A swing of 10% (about 1,500 votes) will result in another 12 seats changing parties, four of Umno’s and eight of PAS’ going to PH.
What it means is that PH will need only a 10% vote swing in Kelantan in order to win about 24 to 26 seats in the state assembly. Given that there are 45 seats in the state assembly at the moment, and a few of those seats are already in its hands from the formation days of the new parties, a simple majority of 23 seats, based on a conservative vote swing of 10%, is very much achievable in the current political climate and scenario.
Of course, there are others who predict that a vote swing in Kelantan this time around will be massive, in the order of 15% to 20%, due to the strong swell against both PAS and Umno. But, I would rather make a more cautious forecast, unless both leaders, Najib and Abdul Hadi Awang, decide to go down to the ground and campaign in Kelantan during GE14. This approach, if it ever happens, will spell a bigger disaster for both Umno and PAS.
Parliamentary seats
So much for state seats, what about parliamentary seats? A swing in parliamentary seats is more potent for PAS and Umno/BN, unfortunately.
As for parliamentary seats, there are 14 to be contested. It appears that even with a small swing of 5%, seven of the seats, P19, P23, P25, P26, P28, P29 and P31, are already dominated by PH.
The contest will be for the remaining seven seats. Given the track record and the fact that Kelantan Umno is not exactly united, with ongoing local squabbles and tussles for leadership, plus its strong objection to cooperating with PAS, against the wishes of Putrajaya, it would not be a surprise if it can get hold of only a single seat.
Some predictions at the ground level are more scathing for PAS. There is no similar campaign of “zero vote” for BN in Kelantan, but if there was one, such a campaign would be more suited to PAS, voiced some of its ex-hardcore supporters in Kelantan.
Their main grouse is almost personal, that they cannot stand Hadi, he is the opposite of former leader Nik Aziz, Hadi is working hand in glove with Najib, and as an Islamic leader, they do not trust Hadi anymore.
In conclusion, past trends have illustrated that the Kelantanese have shown that they have a mind of their own when it comes to the general election. They certainly know how to exercise their rights, and are very resolute in their approach and decision-making, especially when it comes to casting their votes.
Political anger and the wrathful attitude towards Pas and Umno/BN will certainly translate into votes for PH.
Given the current voting pattern, and the bitterness and issues surrounding the country at the moment, the so-called “winning strategy” lit by Najib and Hadi will certainly backfire, come GE14.
In reality, green and blue do not mix well, and get very muddled.
– https://www.themalaysianinsight.co